US & UK Hotel Activity Remains Stronger Than Overall Economy, Germany Falls Flat
Business activity in U.S. hotels increased in June to a reading of 109.5 according to the latest reading of the U.S. Hotel Industry’s Pulse (U.S.-HIP) indicator. e?forecasting.com’s U.S.-HIP, a composite indicator that gauges monthly overall business conditions in the U.S. hotel industry increased 0.5% in June, following an increase of 0.7% in May. The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.
U.S.-HIP’s six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the turning points in U.S. hotel business activity, had a positive rate of 5.5% in June, following a positive rate of 5% in May. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 30-year average annual growth rate of the industry’s gross domestic product.
The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession, which is detected in real-time from U.S.-HIP with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 3.6% in June, down from 4.5% reported in May. When this recession-warning gauge passes the threshold probability of 50%, the U.S. hotel industry enters a recession.
“Our U.S.-HIP continues to show that the U.S. hotel industry continues to outperform that domestic economy,” commented Maria Sogard, CEO of e?forecasting.com. “This is a similar trend to what we have seen with our U.K.-HIP, whereas with our German-HIP the indicator is slowing much like the overall country’s economic climate.”
Two of the demand and supply indicators of current business activity that constitute Hotel Industry’s Pulse (U.S.-HIP) Index had a positive contribution to its change in June: Hotel Jobs and Hotel Capacity. ?The current business activity indicator that had a negative or zero contribution to U.S.-HIP’s change in June was Spending on Hotels.
“In the last twelve months – June 2012 to June 2013 – overall economic activity, measured by e-forecasting.com’s monthly U.S. GDP – rose by 1.2%. Over the same period, economic activity in U.S. Hotels, measured by U.S.-HIP, jumped by 4.1%.”, Maria added.
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